Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f475cdbe7f07683bc3f53f020b0a4d62c67a1e0fe4b027b247f89daf67906be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 23c | 5,275$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.9 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 77c | 2,028$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.39 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,615$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 333.88$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 325.31$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 78c | 303.76$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 276.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 22c | 225.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 23c | 217.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 191.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 77c | 110.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 78c | 109$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 107.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 22c | 103.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 24c | 84.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 78c | 70.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 78c | 64.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 78c | 60.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 78c | 54.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 78c | 27.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 78c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 77c | 24.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 78c | 23.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 78c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 79c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 78c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 78c | 16.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.