Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5171608c05557b65b32c3b4fca1dc2bd835cc5f2a7fbc40524d042e57227f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 274.83$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 257.34$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 237.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 237$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923d…d1cabacked Yes | 7c | 211.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 206.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 10c | 204.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 20c | 200.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 15c | 192.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 49c | 174$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 166.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 159.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 154$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 24c | 132.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 11c | 121.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed Yes | 42c | 120.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 48c | 109$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 106.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 47c | 105.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 103.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 11c | 101.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 94.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 87.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 36c | 82.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed No | 53c | 80.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 59c | 79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 75.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 55c | 71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 61.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 61.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 59.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…290dbacked Yes | 50c | 52.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 31c | 51.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked No | 56c | 46.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 31c | 45.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa242…605abacked Yes | 49c | 45.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 43.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 51c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 65c | 36.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 34.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 47c | 31.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 30.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 28.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…5fa6backed Yes | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…1e49backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…0335backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 61c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked Yes | 49c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 67c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes | 55c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked No | 56c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 54c | 18.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 58c | 17.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.