Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x368f6208d5d0bc0ec0b41001de24a22a6c0651afa75b0cde0835cac719df5472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 71c | 1,007$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.49 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 54c | 577.96$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 22c | 561.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 460.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 51c | 412.01$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 367.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed Yes | 79c | 363$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 70c | 336.03$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 18c | 268.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 31c | 258.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.59 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 237$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 20c | 224.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 223.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 20c | 220.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 198.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 49c | 183.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 13c | 171.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 15c | 163$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 23c | 162.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 160.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 77c | 156.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 154$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 151$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 150.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 141.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 138.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 136.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…9f12backed Yes | 28c | 127.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 124.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 72c | 123.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 53c | 122.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 62c | 117.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 18c | 105.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 101.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 42c | 96.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 93.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 19c | 92.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 91.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked No | 17c | 81.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 73.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 44c | 72.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 71.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 46c | 67.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 16c | 64.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed Yes | 44c | 60.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 58.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 59c | 42.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 42.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 40.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 38c | 39.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 44c | 34.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…cdd9backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 33.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cb…e91abacked Yes | 76c | 30.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 80c | 20.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 80c | 19.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…27c7backed Yes | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 75c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 60c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.