TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Dogecoin above $0.27 on February 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c15,669$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.57575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes5c12,714$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.381225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-63.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1d…d02fbacked No78c10,867$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82c8…0747backed Yes2c6,023$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccf…c90abacked No66c5,610$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002010%2 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+470.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes2c4,995$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.92218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Yes4c3,833$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No41c3,255$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes33c2,806$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.391250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes2c2,569$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.41711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes4c2,400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.99147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdae…b808backed Yes1c2,346$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes18c2,075$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebd4…ce46backed Yes60c2,020$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfd…dd1abacked No40c2,020$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes11c1,723$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.26837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x739d…cf47backed Yes13c1,711$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3428…e1ebbacked Yes19c1,610$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ee…7aa8backed Yes12c1,300$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4643…26c9backed Yes26c1,248$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Yes1c1,214$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8837…f23abacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c979.33$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.7316740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes3c901.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eee…782bbacked Yes3c718.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No80c619$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.85966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+118.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6476…0a70backed Yes3c615$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3a…0481backed Yes3c567.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe896…938bbacked Yes10c516.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…53c8backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed Yes41c490.46$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0911942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes8c468.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.45922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1156…0febbacked Yes23c436.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+291%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9d…7213backed Yes49c434.18$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76bc…205bbacked Yes19c422.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes23c409.89$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.43238.7%2 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes16c383.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Yes48c373.02$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x892a…c279backed Yes60c372.21$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No55c370$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+64.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb561…86f8backed Yes16c337.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f2…50bebacked Yes7c331$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f1…75e1backed Yes29c316.43$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f5…9c9cbacked No72c277.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No60c275.61$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.356431.3%20 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd20f…abc1backed Yes5c256.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd7…e01cbacked Yes11c224.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes40c215.25$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c60…45b8backed Yes18c214.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+219.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes25c205.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf017…9090backed Yes19c189.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ed…2a77backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes21c143.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.25160%0 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90dd…1b5dbacked Yes8c141.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437d…6c11backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c54…f79dbacked Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Yes24c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed No56c109.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a4…543fbacked Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x678c…3c02backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4441…36b5backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf639…10b0backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f35…b01abacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ac…9ff0backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc59b…a402backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a56…265bbacked No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c38…f3f5backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe30d…fdd2backed No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa538…9304backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x940e…63d0backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f57…e8b4backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf714…47a1backed No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fa…0625backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4f…92cfbacked Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ed…3d02backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ddd…260abacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b6…bc82backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9d…6199backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35e…fc0cbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ac…68f2backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…7c02backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eed…ba96backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5455…af4ebacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ec…e8f7backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e09…6081backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2537…48b2backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dea…5eb2backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3921…ef38backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14be…1240backed No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+120.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7d…1b57backed Yes56c79.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…48f2backed Yes63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa44e…4d45backed No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes53c66.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0b…25f9backed Yes23c64.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ad…07b8backed Yes46c63.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ab…714abacked Yes19c55.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01d…4864backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.