Earnings · resolved market
Will Ares Management (ARES) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc29d9fc5a9d0955eb8b610b028ccf38a5c82d33013fc06b261f441fa8ec6c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 43c | 2,499$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.73 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…b20abacked Yes | 52c | 441.94$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 57c | 389.71$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 288.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.14 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…a56bbacked No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 48c | 86.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 56c | 74.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 51c | 52.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x511d…3633backed No | 56c | 52.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…66c7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…e1c8backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 48c | 25.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.