TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes37c1,125$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.3815570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No56c1,096$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.464,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c1,016$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.084,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes26c978.78$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.7145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No68c781.04$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.831,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes38c709.58$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.491,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c705$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.884,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes49c603.62$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.1125135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e4…4e69backed No72c459.27$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c422.68$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.461,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No69c413.49$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.692,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes73c407.39$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c380.17$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.489,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes29c352.23$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes28c350$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.132132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c339.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.344,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c327.77$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.698,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes24c306.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.5146626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe445…8750backed No54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-55.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c294$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.485,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No55c260.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.481,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No5c230.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed Yes34c207.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.972317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes43c206.72$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3915040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No55c200$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.843240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c199.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.342,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6361…3ec4backed No68c179.04$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.711172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+43.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No79c177.2$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c175.89$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.884,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No77c171$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.241,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c170.21$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3192678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes52c160.79$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.181384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9281…60febacked Yes29c157.1$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.023458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes25c149.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6829732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes31c147.72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c145.73$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.151,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No71c133.52$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7171057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes26c132.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes34c130.37$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3710845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes28c125$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.125947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes38c120$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.439427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a2e…64a4backed No58c118.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.316361.9%39 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No73c115.87$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.661,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes30c112.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4423129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No48c111.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.822,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No47c110.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.133,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a5…9ae8backed No65c110.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c110$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes22c107.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.67540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes28c103.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9815630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4816046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5949…89dabacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4816552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes18c96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.724,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes31c95.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No51c93.35$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.613,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes32c92.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+78.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c92.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.983,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes43c92.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.142,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes19c91.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.174734%16 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c89.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No58c84.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No71c84.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7111169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c83.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c80.48$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.123,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c77.12$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.17,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes22c77.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes26c76.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.821,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c76.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.586,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No54c75.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8717633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No77c72.78$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0323666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c72.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.623,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.343,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No67c71.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.742,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8907…b9a3backed Yes31c71.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+62%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No48c67.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5813337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes38c65.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7616656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.294,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes40c62.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7915556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes39c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3122744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No77c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked No33c59.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.814034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf569…a8bbbacked Yes50c59.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.53977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No73c57.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No66c57.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.772,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No73c52.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.817862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No78c52.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.152,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes23c52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0494919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.722630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No66c51.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.621,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No63c50.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1412046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked Yes51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.028451.2%43 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes41c48.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes32c48.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No71c48.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4940862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2260…600ebacked Yes31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.