Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd423e0ed3705794dbb50693cff0e90781205b76cc5f96d75cfa3938c7ddd53d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 72c | 3,508$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 79c | 824.8$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.83 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 799.48$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 784.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 763.64$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 763$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 37c | 700$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.91 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 692.32$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 665.81$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 570.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 426.83$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 365.61$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 338.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked No | 30c | 337.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.61 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 335.03$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 331.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 37c | 325.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.71 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked No | 43c | 312.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.39 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…a675backed Yes | 69c | 289.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 20c | 287.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.69 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 285.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 279.61$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 47c | 273.23$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 69c | 249.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 70c | 246.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.86 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 238.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 51c | 196.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 75c | 193.71$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 191$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 60c | 190.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 181$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 61c | 180.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 177.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 176.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 169.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 158.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 41c | 156$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 153.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 152.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 152.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 47c | 149.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 18c | 143.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 142.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 138$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 29c | 134.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 29c | 129.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 126.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 72c | 125.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 21c | 120.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 120.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 115.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 111.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fae…70ddbacked Yes | 71c | 107.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 103.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 44c | 103.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…84debacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 96.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 92.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 32c | 89.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 89.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 82.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 81.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 45c | 81.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 77.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 77.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 75.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 73.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 72.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 70.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 69c | 69.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 68.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 68.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 67.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 65c | 67.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Yes | 79c | 63.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 33c | 55.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d48…3fdfbacked No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 54.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 30c | 51.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed Yes | 50c | 49.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 36c | 48.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.