Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703c411450d2324da5bd8e86f9361b3024fc383187f7ebf8f1c833a52efaccca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 0c | 16,432$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 886.92$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.85 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…7994backed Yes | 55c | 703.6$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 57c | 656.57$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.56 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 547.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 59c | 482.27$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.03 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 470.76$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 385.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 324.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 260.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 52c | 258.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 48c | 255.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 254.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 244.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 243.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 241.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 31c | 240.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 51c | 234.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 54c | 230.23$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 34c | 229.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 225.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.48 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Yes | 20c | 219.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Yes | 20c | 219.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 215.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 61c | 211.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 192.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 22c | 179.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 169.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 164.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 161.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 156.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 69c | 149.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 141.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 50c | 134.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2404…8183backed Yes | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 60c | 127.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cc…2506backed Yes | 34c | 124$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 35c | 121.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 120.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…d7fdbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 117.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 116.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…c0ecbacked Yes | 34c | 109$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 105.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 68c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…380fbacked Yes | 28c | 104.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 35c | 102.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 98.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 70c | 95.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 83.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked Yes | 34c | 82.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 44c | 80.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 51c | 78.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 64c | 74.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 72.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 69.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…5d13backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 34c | 63.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 61.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 59.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 31c | 58.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 40c | 58.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…0327backed Yes | 35c | 57.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…913ebacked Yes | 34c | 55.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…e43ebacked No | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 51.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…1a48backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…2e17backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 41c | 49.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 49.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 44c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 66c | 45.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 66c | 45.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5094…8049backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 70c | 43.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 38c | 43.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 41.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 65c | 39.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 34c | 38.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 34c | 37.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.