TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes0c16,432$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.969053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No67c886.92$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed Yes55c703.6$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No57c656.57$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5632157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c547.95$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.498,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No59c482.27$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No79c470.76$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No64c385.14$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.811,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c324.46$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.76,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.741,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes38c260.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No52c258.24$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.187650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes48c255.53$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No67c254.1$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c244.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes19c243.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.131,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c241.33$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes31c240.3$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.518740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No51c234.8$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.11,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3949…dffdbacked No54c230.23$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.044148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes34c229.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.496358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes68c225.53$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf25…636dbacked Yes20c219.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked Yes20c219.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c215.09$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.094,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes61c211.77$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8316832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes27c192.93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.951,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes22c179.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.843030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes31c169.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No64c164.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c161.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.743,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No64c156.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8933450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcda…bb51backed Yes69c149.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.463850%19 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes31c141.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.631,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes50c134.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.835232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2404…8183backed Yes16c133$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes60c127.31$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53cc…2506backed Yes34c124$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No35c121.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8734319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c120.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xebd2…d7fdbacked Yes30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes35c117.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.161,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes20c116.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.225725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2d…c0ecbacked Yes34c109$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes35c105.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.911,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes68c105$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9916634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf4…380fbacked Yes28c104.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…6903backed Yes35c102.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.921833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c98.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.671,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No70c95.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0729558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes22c83.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4859818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3737…226abacked Yes34c82.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.621553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes44c80.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4437644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes37c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.65848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes51c78.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes64c74.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c72.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.963,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.716366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked Yes52c69.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.165337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes32c69.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes35c68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.675641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8267…f7b7backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011656.9%66 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5559…5d13backed No72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes34c63.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.934457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes52c61.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.171,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed Yes33c60.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No68c59.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8110…5842backed Yes31c58.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.792114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No40c58.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.791,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…0327backed Yes35c57.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…913ebacked Yes34c55.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d9…e43ebacked No66c54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No68c51.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.661,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fbf…1a48backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6cd…2e17backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x937b…bfabbacked No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52090%18 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick67cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c49.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4956265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes41c49.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2634219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes34c49.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ee…2912backed No44c45.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.63948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes66c45.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed No66c45.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.448151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5094…8049backed No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No70c43.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.212154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No38c43.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7715339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No67c41.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.791,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe0…274cbacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid+38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc08e…9594backed Yes32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e87…5eb7backed No65c39.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes34c38.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes34c37.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9111038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.