Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88828bef88ab1b4a569cc52640a4e2e898362f6868802f241e079b7a197e909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 49c | 800.09$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.52 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 45c | 703.16$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 491.48$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.53 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 438.63$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.94 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 432.67$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 375.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 374.3$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 56c | 365.24$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 43c | 357.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 309.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 307$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 18c | 265.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 263$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…89f6backed No | 36c | 225$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 33c | 207.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 15c | 189.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 165.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 47c | 162.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 52c | 157.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 143.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 141.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 42c | 121.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 70c | 117.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 117.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 60c | 110.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 27c | 110.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 55c | 108.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 103.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 60c | 102.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 25c | 102.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 61c | 100.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 96.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 91.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 89.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 64c | 87.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 86.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 49c | 85.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 83.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 79.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 41c | 72.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 42c | 70.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 68.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 30c | 67.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 33c | 65.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 62.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 48c | 62.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 44c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 53c | 58.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 38c | 56.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 70c | 52.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 55c | 49.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 32c | 49.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 53c | 47.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 42c | 47.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 55c | 45.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 43.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 68c | 41.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 48c | 41.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…587ebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 37.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 45c | 37.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…492dbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 35.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 35.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 59c | 34.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 66c | 30.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 38c | 30.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 63c | 28.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 73c | 26.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 56c | 25.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…99f3backed No | 71c | 25.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 69c | 25.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 56c | 25.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 56c | 24.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 73c | 23.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.