Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7104c3266b36e2a572f2b32b0634dff017400c36c20de643ac4427c0e64ad67e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,712$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.38 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 655.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 6c | 364.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 7c | 313.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 16c | 270.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 75c | 193.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…4726backed No | 70c | 143.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 11c | 141.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 137.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 76c | 131.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 12c | 129.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 127.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 121.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 102.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 10c | 102.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 100.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 92.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 43c | 89.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 88.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 86.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 77c | 84.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 17c | 83.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 83.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed Yes | 60c | 80.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 71.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…c44fbacked Yes | 36c | 61.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 57.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 56.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 56.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…f872backed Yes | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 64c | 40.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 41c | 37.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 77c | 31.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 29.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 77c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 65c | 26.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 62c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 62c | 21.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 20.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 19.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.