World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7116ff4535a291b9ecee9d130cef7d1eac650e5c0c43ade8553c4e4ee3431f2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 32c | 846.88$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.71 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 673.91$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.35 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 214$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 171$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 55.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 29c | 49.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 42.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed Yes | 40c | 33.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 29.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…8bb7backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 62c | 21.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +123%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 14?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on August 14?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.