Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x716133de2d7a71e0639b204c778cf618e32d0c06b84445b68e4c1a532a3d3179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c46…d64dbacked No | 74c | 13,060$9,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.84 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x913d…1508backed Yes | 21c | 10,227$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 32c | 9,490$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,083 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 77c | 8,905$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.91 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90d0…37e3backed Yes | 49c | 2,246$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,822$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,650$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 1,521$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.9 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…02f4backed No | 77c | 1,033$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 5c | 782$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 15c | 700.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 73c | 452$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +347.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…bc3bbacked Yes | 32c | 399.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 76c | 304.64$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 33c | 257$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 63c | 197.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…74bdbacked Yes | 48c | 183.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 172.03$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 123.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 116.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…f9d7backed Yes | 29c | 104.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 43c | 90.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Yes | 23c | 85.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…5542backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 76.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 78c | 74.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…dc6fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 31c | 45.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 15 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 15 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 15 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 15 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.