Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71fb4b1f5cab56d481f42983075e086b403a12dccb06711343f935fcc89f96c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 19c | 3,130$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.45 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 31c | 2,854$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.73 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 2,791$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.56 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 2,712$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.91 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 59c | 2,562$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.32 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…a0c0backed No | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…e042backed Yes | 54c | 1,280$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 19c | 1,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.22 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 18c | 855.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 71c | 831.97$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.41 | 380 | 40.5%154 W · 226 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 19c | 499.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 80c | 494$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8915…1b98backed Yes | 75c | 466.45$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes | 62c | 442.5$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 60c | 400$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4063…0c2bbacked Yes | 61c | 382.68$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 20c | 370.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Yes | 60c | 350$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked Yes | 80c | 329.85$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 79c | 324.74$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 42c | 315.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 38c | 304.82$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 18c | 299.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…ebd5backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…7324backed No | 18c | 210.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 29c | 194.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 79c | 178.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 22c | 149.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c5…8c8abacked Yes | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 129 | 35.7%46 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…aceebacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cab…e9c4backed Yes | 60c | 124.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 32c | 94.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…39e5backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed No | 19c | 68.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…d10cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…163fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…5a96backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…5f03backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…bbe0backed Yes | 71c | 45.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 29c | 45.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5c…54dbbacked Yes | 69c | 42.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…b853backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…a953backed Yes | 63c | 26.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 67c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…f76cbacked Yes | 80c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…6bb2backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…d7c1backed Yes | 60c | 24.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…6865backed Yes | 72c | 23.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 172 | 54.1%93 W · 79 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…ea43backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc844…978cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 417 | 60.2%251 W · 166 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…145abacked Yes | 78c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-29?this page
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw?No won
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.