NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72071e7b439143f5cb401be6cc7b671174e601e0b26fd492971300273a67d93c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 55c | 9,734$5,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,359.95 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 5,205$2,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.73 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,702$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.51 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 1,162$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.1 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 43c | 809$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.13 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 43c | 500$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 401.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 42c | 374$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over | 43c | 358$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 57c | 98.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 20.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Dolphins won
- Dolphins vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-14.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.