NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeeed23b734905119e6772d8382f65921020b2ac5bd100a5809cef736b805207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $263,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 52c | 228,166$117,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,512.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Dolphins | 48c | 216,783$105,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105,010.78 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed Dolphins | 46c | 10,887$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 47c | 7,668$3,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,634.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Patriots | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked Patriots | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.22 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Dolphins | 46c | 2,191$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots | 54c | 1,865$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.08 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Patriots | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Dolphins | 48c | 1,547$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.45 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Dolphins | 46c | 1,365$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.9 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Dolphins | 46c | 1,250$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Patriots | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Dolphins | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Dolphins | 46c | 924.11$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.09 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 54c | 924.11$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.09 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…7352backed Patriots | 54c | 801.76$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Patriots | 56c | 713.64$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Patriots | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Patriots | 53c | 420.73$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.74 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Dolphins | 48c | 354$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.32 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Dolphins | 46c | 304.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Patriots | 53c | 266.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Patriots | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Patriots | 52c | 208.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Patriots | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Patriots | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Patriots | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Dolphins | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Patriots | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Dolphins | 46c | 132.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Dolphins | 30c | 121.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Patriots | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Dolphins | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Patriots | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…5080backed Patriots | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Patriots | 58c | 85.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Dolphins | 47c | 76.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…089dbacked Patriots | 54c | 57.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Dolphins | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Patriots | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Patriots | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Patriots | 51c | 48.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…d0cfbacked Patriots | 57c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Dolphins | 43c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Patriots | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Patriots | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Dolphins | 46c | 39.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…d706backed Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Patriots | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Patriots | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2297…483cbacked Patriots | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b6…e417backed Patriots | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…15ebbacked Patriots | 52c | 22.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Dolphins | 52c | 20.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Dolphins | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Dolphins won
- Dolphins vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-14.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.