TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Patriots (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Patriots, Dolphins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,266
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,266 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Dolphins48c1,279$614 inLost-$613.8573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Patriots59c875$514 inWon+$361.247348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Patriots54c790$428 inWon+$362.431543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Dolphins42c716.42$298 inLost-$298.4265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Dolphins36c563.99$201 inLost-$201.2727633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Patriots64c427.13$274 inWon+$153.367052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Patriots52c408.85$213 inWon+$196.2520757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Dolphins34c315.88$107 inLost-$107.419439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins41c232$95 inLost-$95.121,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Patriots66c228.54$150 inWon+$78.549744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Patriots63c160$101 inWon+$58.814158.9%83 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Patriots65c153.85$100 inWon+$53.855858.6%34 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacd5…7b91backed Patriots56c125.69$71 inWon+$54.811758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Dolphins36c125.64$45 inLost-$45.238349.4%41 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Dolphins34c121.61$41 inLost-$41.3519240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Dolphins36c121.15$44 inLost-$43.9920944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Dolphins25c121$30 inLost-$29.9829439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Dolphins43c101.27$44 inLost-$43.9624352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Patriots66c100$66 inWon+$3418336.1%66 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Patriots52c100$52 inWon+$483658.3%21 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dolphins45c99.33$45 inLost-$44.783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Dolphins38c90$34 inLost-$33.919124.6%47 W · 144 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Dolphins39c80$31 inLost-$31.214818.2%27 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Patriots61c65.57$40 inWon+$25.5719954.8%109 W · 90 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Patriots66c60.61$40 inWon+$20.615558.2%32 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f79…c16cbacked Patriots59c60$35 inWon+$24.63863.2%24 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Patriots64c59.38$38 inWon+$21.381050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f18…2080backed Patriots59c50.85$30 inWon+$20.851776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Dolphins43c40$17 inLost-$17.212756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e08…15ebbacked Patriots66c36.69$24 inWon+$12.552181%17 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+51%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Patriots66c30$20 inWon+$10.226857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ec…66a2backed Patriots56c25$14 inWon+$11666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+77.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots55c21$12 inWon+$9.3860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda20…0cbebacked Patriots52c20$10 inWon+$9.62934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.