NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c38ec469bdbe29eee6a98e32f3634471a4262417372a75e8d214e78ec95b120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $424,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $424,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Dolphins | 51c | 297,565$152,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152,667.82 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Patriots | 49c | 294,956$144,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150,427.41 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Dolphins | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 48c | 86,332$41,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,892.73 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Dolphins | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Patriots | 52c | 15,638$8,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,506.36 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Patriots | 49c | 15,267$7,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,807.59 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Patriots | 52c | 2,214$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.28 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Patriots | 51c | 2,196$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.74 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Dolphins | 53c | 750$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Patriots | 54c | 491$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Patriots | 57c | 368.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Patriots | 49c | 324.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Patriots | 50c | 158.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Patriots | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Dolphins | 53c | 135.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Dolphins | 50c | 135.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…6fa3backed Patriots | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Patriots | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Dolphins | 44c | 95.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Patriots | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Patriots | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Patriots | 49c | 57.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Patriots | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Patriots | 80c | 43.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Patriots | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Dolphins won
- Dolphins vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.