NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf925ab3a32d9df7a45c4c00cb532ebef25a2a3964ab2623458b4e8433364a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dolphins | 44c | 17,540$7,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,717.7 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Patriots | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dolphins | 44c | 7,578$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.54 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 45c | 7,535$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Patriots | 54c | 7,214$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.44 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Dolphins | 48c | 4,017$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.3 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Patriots | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 49c | 2,797$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.7 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Patriots | 56c | 2,675$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.06 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Patriots | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Patriots | 57c | 1,790$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.66 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Dolphins | 44c | 1,258$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.52 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Dolphins | 49c | 911.24$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.62 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Patriots | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Dolphins | 45c | 750$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Dolphins | 46c | 512$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.52 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Patriots | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Dolphins | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Patriots | 56c | 420$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Patriots | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Patriots | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Patriots | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Dolphins | 44c | 314$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Patriots | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Patriots | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Patriots | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Patriots | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Dolphins | 43c | 207.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Patriots | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Patriots | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Patriots | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Patriots | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dolphins | 44c | 161$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Patriots | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +12.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Patriots | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Patriots | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Patriots | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Patriots | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Patriots | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Dolphins | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Patriots | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Patriots | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Patriots | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 101 | 61.4%62 W · 39 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Patriots | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Dolphins | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…15ebbacked Patriots | 56c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Patriots | 56c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…512cbacked Patriots | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Patriots | 74c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Patriots | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Dolphins won
- Dolphins vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-14.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-9.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.