Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73231395deda4f4f249f41d65e4796c2285152f25a50e3867bdaa58e2831d1bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 60c | 10,187$6,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,101.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 31c | 7,172$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,938.09 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed No | 76c | 3,258$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 39c | 2,133$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.85 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 2,073$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.5 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 69c | 2,065$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.28 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 61c | 1,730$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.36 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,645$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,600$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 31c | 1,019$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.66 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 27c | 846.89$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.53 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 68c | 799.75$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.22 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 749.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Yes | 76c | 552$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 529.09$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 60c | 401.4$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.08 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 20c | 360.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 29c | 275.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 60c | 218.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 50c | 172.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…613ebacked Yes | 57c | 167.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes | 31c | 163.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 31c | 161.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 78c | 145.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 30c | 140.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 39c | 133.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 21c | 122.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 104.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 28c | 103.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 60c | 102.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 100.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 30c | 95.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 61c | 89.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 36c | 89.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 40c | 77.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 47c | 74.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 66c | 71.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 77c | 68.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…8a96backed Yes | 66c | 64.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 32c | 60.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 33c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 59c | 49.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 30c | 49.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…88c5backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed No | 69c | 45.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 30c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…eb76backed Yes | 53c | 37.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 61c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 31.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…7720backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 28.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 58c | 27.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed No | 64c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.