Earnings · resolved market
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734292c6243ba3591eaa677eff5e8643ee411ad241af441c6db4b2b92a581cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 69c | 2,030$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.37 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 2c | 937$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 15c | 746.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.76 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 22c | 669.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.36 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 22c | 504.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.63 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 16c | 438.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 21c | 419.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…28dfbacked Yes | 80c | 385.1$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 17c | 287.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.59 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e8c0backed No | 14c | 199.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 68c | 175.84$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 21c | 171.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 153.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27d…13fbbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 21c | 149.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 25c | 146.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…ad59backed Yes | 75c | 133.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 79c | 126.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 17c | 121.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 17c | 119.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed No | 37c | 104.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 102.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed No | 18c | 85.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 24c | 83.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 29c | 82.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 19c | 80.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 25c | 79.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 79c | 79.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 27c | 75.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 71.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…e220backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +273.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 80c | 64.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd00b…38f9backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 62.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 19c | 58.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c34…e3d8backed Yes | 79c | 57.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25be…5b6dbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…9c42backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…dfbfbacked Yes | 70c | 34.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 79c | 31.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked No | 34c | 31.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0747…95d3backed Yes | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…973fbacked No | 39c | 26.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f3…cb71backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1b…650bbacked Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc573…cdacbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.