Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ad98fdeea5367601f03f9c73b4ed4acddad1ac0a8706c57e7973846c3e8783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 15c | 4,429$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 8c | 3,739$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 8c | 2,716$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,556$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,172$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 9c | 1,098$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Yes | 18c | 1,096$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.57 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac3…9220backed Yes | 11c | 1,061$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…a1f7backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 969.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 7c | 762.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 4c | 687.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 12c | 674.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 18c | 556.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 507.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 5c | 499.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 447.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 13c | 429.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…99d7backed Yes | 10c | 390.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 13c | 372$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 10c | 340.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 11c | 326.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…45c0backed Yes | 7c | 315.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…11d0backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 275.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked No | 80c | 247.1$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 8c | 220.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 15c | 205$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 171$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…8efabacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 11c | 126.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…0ac6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 17c | 103$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 23c | 83.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…2da6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked No | 78c | 40.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.