Earnings · resolved market
Will Autozone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d0bd1bcc5307042d2b6e1a416f0f19914b3aabf1d7f4f7e389b2ad89f56376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51aa…10dabacked No | 67c | 750.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes | 40c | 499.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 44c | 429$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 58c | 290$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 55c | 230$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 60c | 222.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb030…63e1backed No | 60c | 174.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 41c | 152.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 114$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…34bdbacked No | 54c | 102.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 38c | 97.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 56c | 86.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 62c | 66.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 70c | 56.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 36c | 56.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 70c | 52.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…ab0fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 55c | 49.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 29c | 39.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25a…f391backed Yes | 49c | 37.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 56c | 35.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 35c | 35.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1b4fbacked No | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…ea28backed No | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…7899backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked No | 73c | 16.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.