NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73fe2537bd12a81c7800ed5b5cbfda47a537b81d7ab05e610852b82a4e4cce68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 42,990$21,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,526.24 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked 76ers | 50c | 38,875$19,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,547.42 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked 76ers | 50c | 20,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,900 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers | 46c | 9,944$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,364.19 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed 76ers | 54c | 9,874$5,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,331.92 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 53c | 7,863$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Cavaliers | 55c | 7,784$4,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.91 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked 76ers | 50c | 7,118$3,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,558.8 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Cavaliers | 51c | 4,769$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.37 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Cavaliers | 47c | 2,893$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.29 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Cavaliers | 49c | 2,634$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.84 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Cavaliers | 53c | 2,350$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.64 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed 76ers | 47c | 2,299$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed 76ers | 46c | 2,175$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.5 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 50c | 1,790$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed 76ers | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,471$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.6 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed 76ers | 55c | 909.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 50c | 882.39$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.06 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 76ers | 49c | 844.52$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 827.54$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed 76ers | 53c | 738$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.53 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 674$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 46c | 655.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers | 50c | 638.13$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.07 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…837ebacked Cavaliers | 47c | 570$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…0529backed 76ers | 53c | 570$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed 76ers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 52c | 471$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 49c | 438$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 262.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 76ers | 48c | 218.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed 76ers | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Cavaliers | 55c | 209.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…20e9backed 76ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…f4abbacked 76ers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Cavaliers | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed 76ers | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked 76ers | 47c | 144.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed 76ers | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked 76ers | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed 76ers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed 76ers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked 76ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked 76ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed 76ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…4457backed 76ers | 44c | 80.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed 76ers | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…6dbebacked 76ers | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Cavaliers | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed 76ers | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed 76ers | 54c | 55.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers | 49c | 42.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c99…2c2abacked 76ers | 45c | 40.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…38b9backed 76ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked 76ers | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cavaliers | 48c | 30.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…1f27backed 76ers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed 76ers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)76ers won
- 76ers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- 76ers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)76ers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.