WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7434d6481c7c4f0755a0f99376a85b908bb4bd28beac5364bd315606bef13dc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Las Vegas Aces, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba43…c6c0backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 3,820$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.84 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 3,624$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.89 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 3,323$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.5 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 43c | 1,145$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.7 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…1e9fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 1,137$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics | 43c | 989.81$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.19 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Mystics | 60c | 744.4$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…84c5backed Washington Mystics | 47c | 640.43$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.43 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 588.56$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 584$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.68 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…aac5backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 347.41$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.71 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 287.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 270.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 248.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 59c | 204.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 202.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…57c6backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Mystics | 38c | 183$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 163.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…74a9backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 141.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Mystics | 39c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 104.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…aeb7backed Washington Mystics | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 66.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…dcb4backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 64.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics | 43c | 62.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 56.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 51.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Washington Mystics | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Washington Mystics | 47c | 34.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington MysticsWashington Mystics won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 158.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 160.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 161.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 162.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 163.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)Washington Mystics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.