WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2172cb5ff62a5e1196adb18181b6ec67a4c2dabc88557411ba75adef42bac080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Las Vegas Aces, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Washington Mystics | 53c | 5,000$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.81 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 4,422$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.1 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 2,051$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…6f18backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 1,999$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.55 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 1,679$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.73 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Washington Mystics | 52c | 1,398$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.91 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,137$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.37 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 1,122$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.96 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.39 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 969.69$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Washington Mystics | 52c | 966.35$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 915.34$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.87 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 785.48$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.03 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 626.96$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.6 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Washington Mystics | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…aac5backed Washington Mystics | 58c | 507.48$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 504.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 440.6$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Washington Mystics | 47c | 300$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…7c82backed Las Vegas Aces | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 269.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Washington Mystics | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…de4abacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 200.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 197.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 189.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 177.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 174.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 170$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Mystics | 55c | 148.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Washington Mystics | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 124$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 80.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 77.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 75.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…3bafbacked Washington Mystics | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 65.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 65.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 59.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 59.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 37.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington MysticsWashington Mystics won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 158.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 160.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 161.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 162.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 163.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.