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NHL · resolved market

Will the Dallas Stars win the Western Conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes14c7,945$1,121 inLost-$1,121.282,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost-$22019836.9%73 W · 125 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf796…3ac5backed Yes18c1,879$338 inLost-$338.272119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes8c1,270$99 inLost-$98.9510336.9%38 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+2.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Yes12c1,148$137 inLost-$137.4718931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1721…cfa6backed Yes13c1,101$143 inLost-$143.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff5…4778backed Yes13c1,094$142 inLost-$142.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes12c950.3$119 inLost-$118.659431.9%30 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5713…0180backed Yes13c891$116 inLost-$115.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88eb…50e0backed Yes1c890$10 inLost-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe02…d6d5backed Yes13c734$95 inLost-$95.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…5954backed Yes13c690$90 inLost-$89.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…c8b4backed Yes13c688$89 inLost-$89.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9e…c707backed Yes20c512.13$100 inLost-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes14c511.73$72 inLost-$71.643721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+210.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes8c462.97$37 inLost-$37.043228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd328…8b13backed Yes17c450.04$75 inLost-$75.281844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No79c416$327 inWon+$89.2411435.1%40 W · 74 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes15c371.66$55 inLost-$55.393228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94d…86babacked Yes21c276.02$59 inLost-$59.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa582…8ec0backed Yes16c250$40 inLost-$402020%4 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes15c244.53$36 inLost-$35.761526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d2…03afbacked Yes16c220$35 inLost-$35.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c188$27 inLost-$26.6422516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes14c173.45$24 inLost-$23.916811.8%8 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes13c129$17 inLost-$16.963444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed Yes20c102.3$20 inLost-$2054049.4%267 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42d…abd8backed Yes14c101.43$14 inLost-$14.48119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-69.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$129553.7%51 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa4e…9983backed Yes15c81$12 inLost-$12.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Yes16c64.51$10 inLost-$10.3215245.4%69 W · 83 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9c4…b937backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$101546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.