South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74976b907c58d1bf5c97de49b9db4561a46c69f31eb2d88c1deb4936cf12250d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 7,612$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.77 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 38c | 7,506$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820.49 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 4,760$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.54 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 4,122$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,683$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.75 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 2,500$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.97 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 1,455$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 42c | 1,295$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.78 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 17c | 1,289$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…5928backed No | 47c | 1,039$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 18c | 1,030$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.01 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 860.14$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.86 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 75c | 731.39$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.46 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 22c | 605.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 17c | 550$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 12c | 516.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 24c | 516.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.87 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 32c | 468.69$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 49c | 412.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 36c | 374.28$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 31c | 335.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 30c | 313.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7b…3d69backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 18c | 296.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 13c | 295.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 16c | 291.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.67 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 78c | 259.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 25c | 233$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 17c | 209.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.23 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 21c | 207.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 33c | 206$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 29c | 183.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yes | 72c | 173$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 16c | 173$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 53c | 163.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…4944backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 20c | 107.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…b560backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…5607backed No | 78c | 99.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 43c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 17c | 78.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Yes | 67c | 74.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 17c | 72.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 80c | 68.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…4472backed Yes | 18c | 59.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 55.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 26c | 52.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 48.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed No | 80c | 47.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 50c | 37.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed Yes | 32c | 35.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 74c | 34.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Yes | 60c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 44c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.