TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,122 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes58c3,160$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.891,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c2,502$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.021,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes49c1,852$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.5210539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes69c1,769$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.621,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes71c1,751$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No57c1,652$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.042,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes34c1,287$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No65c971.57$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9516295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c897.38$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.866,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No59c732.06$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.681,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes71c644.88$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.651,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No45c555$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.963,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No50c496.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No36c491$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.735,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No41c408.12$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.174,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No48c400.73$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.394,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No48c353.73$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No35c352.88$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.544,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes75c335.01$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes65c323.45$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c309.31$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c279.31$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.311,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No29c261.88$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf591…b8c7backed Yes72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No42c229.62$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.182,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No42c218.5$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.571,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c211.39$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes60c200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.961,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No28c194.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fbe…1b41backed No54c186.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No19c168$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.561,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes71c161.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.772416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2911958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No35c156$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No44c150.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.631,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes21c147.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.452,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes64c130.03$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5911731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c115$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No36c114$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.244,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No40c113.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No40c113.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No42c108.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.534853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes67c101.79$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2227247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No39c97.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1721451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No36c95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.123941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes67c94.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No32c93.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.563,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No36c89.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.332,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0213…2b7cbacked Yes46c86.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed No29c84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6615449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked Yes63c79.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0242762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No40c77.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3712351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes79c75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No40c74.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.91,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked No34c74.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.34961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No52c74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5213845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No45c72.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No49c71.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1952758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…087bbacked No61c70.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed No58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.422959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No65c69.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6287629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No36c64.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2304…24bfbacked Yes72c60.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd394…ef4ebacked No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No63c56.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4f…1f77backed Yes71c56.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes43c52.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No43c51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0716724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes47c50.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.432,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.55248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2aa…f58dbacked No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2143959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.54537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.510147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.53655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9914043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x808c…0aa2backed Yes61c48.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes48c46.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.622,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes49c46.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7815950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No50c46.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.313852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes59c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7827756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098d…6cc2backed Yes71c41.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.783881.6%31 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9357…1e38backed Yes73c41.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No32c41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.884887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No48c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2319753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a4…0a91backed Yes70c40.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.