TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes26c3,141$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.744,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No65c2,354$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.888845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes20c1,883$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No74c1,687$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.81,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes32c819.97$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.0811148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes28c480.32$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4997152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c1…7edabacked No76c455.42$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.182669.2%18 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes21c410$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c379.95$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes12c306.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.882,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c300.37$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.014,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes20c295.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1530332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes24c239.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.421,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c237.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes31c223.8$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes24c219.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.823,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c209.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes34c201.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.593,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c193.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.197,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c187.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes17c161.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5233232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes33c157$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.342,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c150.29$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.081,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked Yes28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No78c138.01$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.541,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes10c132.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.298537.6%32 W · 53 L+15.1wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+161.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No63c132.43$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.262,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes28c130$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c127.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.49,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes37c126.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes21c118.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7120144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes15c116.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No78c111.9$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6292678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No65c104.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.549038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No79c95.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.811,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c90.55$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.743,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.224,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No73c84.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.321,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes24c83.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce2…957fbacked No68c82.25$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed Yes34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0311027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes22c75.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.531,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes26c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No68c69.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No76c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.672466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes32c58.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes25c51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7549551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes27c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7716724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.515246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa5…c42fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1725954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18368.3%3 W · 33 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-77.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.515545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes32c49.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7630849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.227841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed No78c39.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.724427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No62c36.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b3…c118backed No73c34.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-46.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes29c34.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0164859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c27.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.039,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c26.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No73c26.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.171,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No75c26.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.629272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No75c26.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6222265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c24.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No73c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.571,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No78c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0627669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.052,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c19.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.582,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No70c15.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.555558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.