MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d523549b145437a42eb4b0a7f74fbc298572e4a4dc8c0f560a6edb626cc6ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 11,865$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,409.53 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 9,834$6,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.97 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 40c | 2,118$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.92 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 59c | 1,724$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.51 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 40c | 1,650$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 37c | 1,565$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.61 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 60c | 1,031$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.72 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 989$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.4 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 950.78$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.57 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 907$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.43 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 623.94$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 554.51$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 481.74$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 40c | 478.12$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.87 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 68c | 418.56$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 56c | 416.85$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.66 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 295.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Under | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Over | 43c | 135$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 33c | 93.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 42c | 79.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 60c | 55.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 44c | 48.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 55c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 46c | 35.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 48c | 27.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Over | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.