MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0bc69fbdabe977f66e83abf8b47d900937c9f36d4da8c8c5d502199823c9b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 79c | 4,503$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.49 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 3,944$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.96 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed New York Mets | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 2,813$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.9 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 58c | 2,366$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.33 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 1,502$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 621.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 552.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 478.45$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.45 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 432.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Mets | 71c | 415.61$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.53 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 66c | 241.26$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 238.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 231 | 42.9%99 W · 132 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed New York Mets | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked New York Mets | 54c | 183.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked New York Mets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 54c | 92.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Milwaukee Brewers | 17c | 92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 68.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 59.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked New York Mets | 54c | 51.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 49.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 62c | 47.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…eddabacked New York Mets | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 28.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 53c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 22.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.