MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a8ce275be558b5d880f1dd47bf3ffb05e108c96a9b34c78af13d6314cde394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 100,000$48,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,999.97 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 52c | 64,155$33,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,512.8 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 25,921$12,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,182.98 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 25,862$13,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,413.57 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 52c | 23,083$12,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,079.6 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 52c | 6,638$3,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.24 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 3,935$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.36 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 53c | 3,773$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.31 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 3,030$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.67 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 52c | 2,286$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.97 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 1,430$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 74c | 1,233$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.03 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 1,205$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.44 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 1,106$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.42 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 938.51$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.48 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 48c | 728.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 722.24$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Under | 52c | 424.52$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 27c | 394.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 52c | 263.61$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 52c | 237.73$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 198.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 52c | 184.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 52c | 175$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 52c | 133.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 131.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 79c | 98.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 52c | 69.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 52c | 53.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 71c | 52.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 79c | 51.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 80c | 35.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 80c | 34.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…555abacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -9.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Under | 77c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.