MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e398daad03fca97984d02c785fc9b4632cbd4b5ad1128c1710968b215f38874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 111,696$69,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,226.5 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 37c | 61,969$23,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,056.75 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 21,959$13,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,264.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…b04cbacked Over | 38c | 16,470$6,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,304.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Over | 38c | 10,800$4,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,104 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 8,163$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.94 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Over | 38c | 8,000$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 63c | 6,802$4,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.92 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…01e6backed Over | 40c | 5,880$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 38c | 5,360$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.42 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…79a2backed Over | 38c | 4,730$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 3,731$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.46 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Over | 38c | 3,302$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.76 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 2,275$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.07 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…a00bbacked Over | 38c | 2,231$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 39c | 2,057$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.96 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…fa40backed Over | 37c | 2,051$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Over | 36c | 1,639$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e6d4backed Over | 37c | 1,308$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 13c | 1,123$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 1,114$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.46 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 1,002$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.04 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 41c | 929$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.89 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 862.63$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.68 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 37c | 852$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.61 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 38c | 760.46$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 79c | 730.8$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 62c | 649$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.08 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 9c | 560.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 482.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 38c | 471$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.55 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…b397backed Over | 39c | 409.21$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 71c | 396.94$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 37c | 344.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 8c | 334$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 62c | 320.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 39c | 282.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 64c | 243.63$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 38c | 229.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 37c | 222$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 14c | 201.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 39c | 169.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 63c | 70.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 37c | 65.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…394bbacked Over | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 31c | 50.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…ecbebacked Over | 37c | 49.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…a441backed Under | 63c | 47.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 63c | 46.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 37c | 37.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e1…dd55backed Under | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…c723backed Under | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 38c | 27.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 37c | 27.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…f821backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9040…672ebacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.