Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e4bafec78c7788b9881e6caa1886fc78268366cfcfa812c65efe7af8c6bf2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 5c | 1,287$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 26c | 594.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 547$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 524.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 449.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 409.91$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.85 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 22c | 364.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 30c | 330.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 317.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 316.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 268$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 74c | 184.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 16c | 173.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 164.04$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 29c | 151.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 24c | 147.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 126.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 28c | 116.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 114.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 111.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 104.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 102.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 15c | 95.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 21c | 95.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 89.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 62.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 61.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 60.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 50.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 50.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 68c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 42.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 77c | 39.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 38.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 72c | 34.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 35c | 33.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 33.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 79c | 31.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 31.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 76c | 29.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 70c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…211dbacked No | 72c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 71c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 79c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed No | 74c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.