Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7514e9d84cecac8de365ef903a51318e0a7355ba43145da4cf999f704a9d3c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 2,061$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.79 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 907.14$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 609$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 540.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 484.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 479.65$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 388.8$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 333.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 322.17$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 312.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 304.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 229.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 190.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 182$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 155.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 38c | 135.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 134.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 133.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 39c | 128.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 124$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 22c | 116.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 114.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 114.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 10c | 113.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 60c | 111$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 41c | 109.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 40c | 101.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 100.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 96.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 94.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 52c | 90.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 90.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 85.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 39c | 81.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 80.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 34c | 72.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 68.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 63.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 40c | 62.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 57c | 58.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…6f79backed Yes | 22c | 54.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 46.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 23c | 44.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 43.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 40c | 41.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 41.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 29c | 40.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 40.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 50c | 38.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 37.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…2953backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 34.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 33.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 32.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 31.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…5393backed Yes | 40c | 28.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 26.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 41c | 25.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 70c | 22.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.