Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b18c10e9329b12a54a72fceb87c67bebf5f19e439fb60f36ee1931f75fcb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 16c | 499.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 42c | 464.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.22 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 30c | 350.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 337.2$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 16c | 310.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 32c | 280.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 257.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 223.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 19c | 222$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.54 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 216.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 54c | 197.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 193.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 183.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 169.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 163.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 21c | 160.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 160.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 63c | 158.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 17c | 157.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 155.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 73c | 152.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 75c | 147.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 135.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 132.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 42c | 128.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 123.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 35c | 115.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 74c | 114.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 18c | 108.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 108.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 108$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 24c | 104.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…d8a0backed No | 55c | 99.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 30c | 99.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 14c | 92.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 73c | 88.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 17c | 82.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 54c | 70.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 69c | 65.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 62.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 61.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 17c | 60.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…d594backed Yes | 18c | 59.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 59.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 69c | 59.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 50.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 77c | 49.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 60c | 49.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 73c | 48.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 47.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 79c | 46.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 46.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 46.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 77c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 24c | 45.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 44.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…e0f0backed No | 78c | 38.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 36.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 75c | 33.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 77c | 30.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 30.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 41c | 30.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 58c | 29.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd7…6984backed No | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 72c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 43c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 51c | 25.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 24.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 56c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 66c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 16.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.