Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753990e40a7840ba4b643b17e2072370d9b2644209da2e65dfcb6a4c790420fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 20c | 653.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 455.16$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 454.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 51c | 430.44$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 416.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 78c | 320.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 49c | 255.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 221.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 53c | 198.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 170.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 162.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 156$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 19c | 149.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 41c | 144.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 129.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 121.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 10c | 113.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 113.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 112.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 41c | 107.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 18c | 99.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 97.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 54c | 91.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 19c | 88.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 22c | 86.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 84.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…7f3bbacked Yes | 50c | 83.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 73.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 69.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 68.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 51c | 68.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 51c | 65.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 64.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 62.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 60.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 59c | 59.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 56.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 55.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 56c | 52.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 54c | 52.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 52.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 56c | 50.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 55c | 49.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 51c | 47.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 45.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 44.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 44.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 33c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 36.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 41c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 32.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 31.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 55c | 30.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 52c | 29.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 28.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 28.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 27.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 48c | 26.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 51c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 56c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 68c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 20.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 53c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.