Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38308ed15ea54d1a6da0d6939726dbba382d1b9f0985fac8f94e03b0f9e513a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 1,078$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 532.95$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.14 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 474.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 73c | 360.79$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.74 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 328.72$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 30c | 267.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 43c | 235.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 195.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 193.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 183.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 178.64$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 168.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…b5b2backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 155.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 148.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 137.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 42c | 125.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 56c | 124.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 122.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 117.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 31c | 116.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 35c | 115.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 110.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 106.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 102.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 38c | 101.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 99.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 30c | 98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 22c | 80.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 76.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 45c | 76.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 70.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 69.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 67.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 76c | 65.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 45c | 65.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 29c | 65.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 49c | 58.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 49c | 58.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 58.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 51c | 57.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 67c | 57.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 56.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 56.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 35c | 55.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 47c | 53.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 23c | 51.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 51.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 51.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 49.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 44.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 44.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 33c | 43.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 73c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 40.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 35.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 52c | 34.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 34.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 33.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 69c | 33.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 31.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…6054backed No | 60c | 31.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 30.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 35c | 29.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…b2f5backed Yes | 45c | 26.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 57c | 26.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 70c | 26.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 24.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3451backed Yes | 46c | 24.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.