Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753bfb74f25009a8bc20190abdbf0dfd663e7367c1d6c9bb6bc75a9cd2351a24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41c…3c9bbacked No | 1c | 2,812$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 844.55$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 735.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 69c | 643.61$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 74c | 536.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 2c | 499.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 51c | 497.09$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 450.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 3c | 440.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 44c | 432.87$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 69c | 334.51$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 325.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 71c | 311.92$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 79c | 307.25$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 5c | 302.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 29c | 299.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 27c | 294.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 33c | 274.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 35c | 268.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.39 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 8c | 264.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 70c | 254.29$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 205$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed No | 31c | 190.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 186.22$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 45c | 166.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 53c | 155.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 140.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 139.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 51c | 137.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 32c | 127.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 32c | 123.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 59c | 121.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 120.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…74f3backed No | 13c | 106.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 98.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 96.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 90.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 71.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 44c | 69.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 66c | 69.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 63.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 33c | 60.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 59.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 36c | 54.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 65c | 50.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 45c | 48.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 61c | 47.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 46.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 57c | 39.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 69c | 38.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 34.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 28.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 60c | 27.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 27.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 41c | 26.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…c1bebacked Yes | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 25.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 22.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 51c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 51c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 60c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 63c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 66c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.