NHL · resolved market
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755d103d6b7d25abbb371986a60fd734aeda734485dada467fa38cb674a41cb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc98e…1ce1backed Yes | 2c | 12,331$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 11,311$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 4c | 8,627$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.8 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes | 3c | 6,063$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,245$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,780$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 11c | 4,500$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.35 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 1c | 4,090$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 6c | 3,739$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Yes | 1c | 3,616$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 5c | 1,054$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 747.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 2c | 705.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5050…5e6cbacked Yes | 3c | 668$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9600…4b50backed Yes | 6c | 641$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…8368backed Yes | 3c | 627.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 544.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…9803backed Yes | 7c | 412.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 406.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…f90bbacked Yes | 5c | 389$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a08…f344backed Yes | 5c | 249$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…aa6ebacked Yes | 5c | 242$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…e783backed Yes | 5c | 242$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…2999backed Yes | 5c | 237$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…2937backed Yes | 5c | 223$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 5c | 222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…b0e7backed Yes | 5c | 214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…a8cabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27e…22c5backed Yes | 6c | 197$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…1187backed Yes | 6c | 182$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 96.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy?this page
- Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Connor Hellebuyck win the Hart Trophy?Yes won
- Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Quinn Hughes win the Hart Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.