NHL · resolved market
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11aef4a94a782ed8e310a488b0169d69716daa86657b82c9022c305660efeb55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc98e…1ce1backed Yes | 1c | 9,178$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 9,040$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 6,879$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,098$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.85 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes | 11c | 2,739$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 8c | 2,607$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.66 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 1c | 2,141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…65bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…8368backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 9c | 1,586$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 22c | 1,343$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 2c | 851.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 738.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 19c | 727.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…f663backed Yes | 4c | 662.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…24abbacked Yes | 22c | 552.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…7c3fbacked Yes | 8c | 275.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 20c | 155.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…46cebacked Yes | 9c | 143$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…cdddbacked Yes | 9c | 136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…de0cbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 13c | 104.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 97.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 22c | 93.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…ecfebacked Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 80.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…cf3fbacked Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 63.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy?this page
- Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Connor Hellebuyck win the Hart Trophy?Yes won
- Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy?No won
- Will Quinn Hughes win the Hart Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.