TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof OG, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$714,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$790,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $714,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro51c89,272$45,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,323.681,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed OG48c72,000$34,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,291.889733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked OG49c30,000$14,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,60028159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Virtus.pro50c24,088$12,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,985.7196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed OG46c21,390$9,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,903.1371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Virtus.pro63c20,816$13,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,688.0730667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked OG46c20,195$9,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,192.854942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro60c17,491$10,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,982.2553451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Virtus.pro48c16,498$7,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,579.0640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked OG50c15,135$7,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,593.9441944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed OG47c11,895$5,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,587.7169644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked OG42c11,279$4,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,701.2641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Virtus.pro49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed OG46c9,400$4,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32426540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed OG47c9,134$4,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,292.989736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed Virtus.pro70c8,576$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.81471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Virtus.pro60c8,500$5,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.7680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Virtus.pro59c8,050$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.1553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed OG36c7,543$2,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75135062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Virtus.pro61c7,238$4,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.9961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Virtus.pro48c7,078$3,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,653.4156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Virtus.pro47c6,831$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.8993546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Virtus.pro55c6,651$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.876374.6%47 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked OG47c6,319$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.224544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked OG50c6,038$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.8716746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed OG52c5,992$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.2329042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Virtus.pro55c5,919$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.0530357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Virtus.pro63c5,918$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.3651049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked OG48c5,895$2,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,806.6325752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ad…3624backed Virtus.pro60c5,626$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.212425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Virtus.pro48c5,504$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.4579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Virtus.pro49c5,357$2,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,710.5450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed OG1c5,200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked OG43c5,138$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.6636547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed OG29c5,000$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.275145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked OG47c4,969$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.593647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG25c4,655$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.6545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked OG57c4,473$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.933867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5615…3199backed OG46c4,389$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.681850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed OG44c4,300$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed Virtus.pro49c4,226$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.2210453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked OG53c4,150$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.4813960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Virtus.pro79c4,011$3,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.1828251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed Virtus.pro50c3,927$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Virtus.pro61c3,891$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.216547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Virtus.pro72c3,882$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.1119456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x299b…cdc1backed Virtus.pro78c3,860$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.696552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed OG50c3,846$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.722040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed Virtus.pro57c3,755$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.9911551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Virtus.pro51c3,533$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.6425266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Virtus.pro60c3,442$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.8150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked OG48c3,278$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.7277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Virtus.pro51c3,259$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.1121158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed OG50c3,207$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.5822663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked OG58c3,190$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.275238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked OG42c3,092$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.0799844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed OG49c3,060$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.5618356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed OG29c3,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86014646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed OG51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Virtus.pro62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed OG38c2,775$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.447054.3%38 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked OG40c2,638$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.2635960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed OG47c2,603$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.4672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked Virtus.pro52c2,580$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.0615368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Virtus.pro64c2,322$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.4222450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed OG8c2,265$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.816639.4%26 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked OG42c2,115$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.411,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked OG47c2,033$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.7495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked OG47c2,005$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.257936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Virtus.pro52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96010651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed OG45c2,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91028044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed Virtus.pro60c1,900$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7606653%35 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Virtus.pro45c1,900$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.9929348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed OG45c1,880$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84614136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Virtus.pro52c1,868$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.9429352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro54c1,865$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.191,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed Virtus.pro55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1814258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Virtus.pro52c1,764$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.9232756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4620…ea85backed OG54c1,757$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.133935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Virtus.pro60c1,750$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.0644149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…03a6backed OG28c1,686$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.273339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked OG61c1,642$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed OG44c1,640$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.647046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked OG46c1,633$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.4986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed OG46c1,624$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.91,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked OG44c1,610$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.627060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb4…da4fbacked OG49c1,600$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7847566.7%50 W · 25 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc065…00e2backed OG36c1,588$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.563759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed OG62c1,578$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.3215150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed OG41c1,553$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.5735737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked OG54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8108657%49 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked OG45c1,451$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.982,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked OG49c1,446$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71511535.7%41 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed OG43c1,441$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.2654246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed OG53c1,440$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.1734667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed OG34c1,427$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.5445352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Virtus.pro48c1,415$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.3136248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Virtus.pro53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65836343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4579…dfdfbacked Virtus.pro55c1,364$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.911457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked OG46c1,328$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.8248053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.