NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7605f79c59726b4464c33a67d7ad79bb35f72750614529e2b69bbbbe7c8541f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 42c | 3,543$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.01 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 41c | 2,531$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.1 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…ca79backed Under | 59c | 2,486$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 59c | 1,186$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 1,120$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…39fbbacked Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Under | 48c | 598.97$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 582.87$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 58c | 533.23$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.96 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under | 58c | 459.8$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.12 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 18c | 299.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 41c | 284.8$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 264.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 255.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 222.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 41c | 199.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…af3dbacked Under | 59c | 191.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…09f8backed Over | 42c | 183.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 41c | 111.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 64c | 107.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dd4bbacked Under | 66c | 105.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 90.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 78.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Under | 60c | 55.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 59c | 49.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 32c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 43.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Under | 51c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 42c | 37.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…7f3abacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 42c | 28.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 41c | 25.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Under | 58c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 51c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 71c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Under | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Under | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.