MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76344d034b5e0a21c79578e484d9cb3345d582afd2fb8305a00c69e6332a80fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 4,425$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 2,590$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 35c | 1,010$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 31c | 984$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 43c | 806.3$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.59 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 770.13$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 627.6$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 550.32$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.72 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 34c | 538.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 375.65$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…0690backed Houston Astros | 60c | 374.55$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Houston Astros | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Houston Astros | 32c | 304.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.32 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 53c | 227.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…0b92backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 201.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 40c | 128.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Houston Astros | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 107.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 31c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 44.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Houston Astros | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 68c | 37.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Houston Astros | 62c | 31.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Houston Astros | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.