MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d1c124e1e948c474db07837b6859f4ece901c1af81aa520cc901144a0ff8423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 6,580$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 5,556$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 38c | 2,228$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 64c | 787.75$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.59 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 26c | 725.6$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 36c | 721$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.68 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 716.77$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 63c | 599.93$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.93 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 74c | 566$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 552$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 22c | 536.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 43c | 506.58$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 57c | 504.49$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.93 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 497.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 433.74$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 363.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 73c | 294.18$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 283.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Over | 38c | 269.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 248$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 201.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 63c | 197.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 35c | 115.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 90.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Under | 62c | 74.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Under | 62c | 74.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 62c | 65.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 34c | 64.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 63c | 60.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 61c | 52.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 43c | 48.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Over | 43c | 48.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…e183backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…2e7ebacked Over | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 64c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 37c | 31.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…352ebacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 35c | 29.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 61c | 29.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 61c | 26.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 66c | 25.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 60c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 60c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 61c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Under | 72c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…ae36backed Under | 76c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 186 | 52.7%98 W · 88 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.