MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12301b8839dc7533a0dbd9aa8573a40e9118a1b5739572a963d7e49b25e2de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 49c | 2,561$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.51 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 2,250$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 71c | 806.25$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.15 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 599.01$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 42c | 444.73$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Under | 38c | 442.38$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 426.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 54c | 372.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 65c | 299.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 265.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over | 57c | 259.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 49c | 204.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70c…43eabacked Under | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…70adbacked Under | 48c | 158.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 151.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 61c | 142.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 65c | 129.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 37c | 127.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 35c | 125.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 109.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 36c | 93.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 85.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 58c | 73.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 72.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…7b44backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Under | 42c | 46.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Over | 47c | 30.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 60c | 24.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.