TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,912 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No55c1,500$825 inWon+$67567250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed No55c1,364$750 inWon+$613.6421856%122 W · 96 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Yes50c1,042$521 inLost-$520.7830454.3%165 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes43c888.56$382 inLost-$382.082,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes45c521.11$234 inLost-$234.52,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes41c428.48$176 inLost-$175.6849650.2%249 W · 247 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked No59c368.64$216 inWon+$152.3968652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes42c249.58$105 inLost-$104.8250337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes44c246.46$109 inLost-$109.141,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed No58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.4129344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed No59c169.49$100 inWon+$69.4934645.1%156 W · 190 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed No58c151.31$88 inWon+$63.5516456.7%93 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes44c142.71$63 inLost-$638950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Yes45c110.5$50 inLost-$49.836,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked No64c110.31$71 inWon+$39.711080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+47.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Yes12c90$11 inLost-$10.82948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c74…3c0dbacked Yes40c78.32$31 inLost-$31.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fc…7d9fbacked Yes43c58.14$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed No55c46.69$26 inWon+$21.0912654%68 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked No73c45.45$33 inWon+$12.335,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes42c34.99$15 inLost-$14.795041.5%394 W · 556 L-48.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes40c30$12 inLost-$121,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6f…7248backed No63c24$15 inWon+$8.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked No58c23.95$14 inWon+$10.0670455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No61c22.95$14 inWon+$8.952853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd199…3355backed No56c21.74$12 inWon+$9.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.