MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33826ae0256923b782d7d25d871e99275307abc4ed6d920d62ba971fd3fe812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 7,895$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 5,075$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 62c | 4,876$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 4,699$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 62c | 4,694$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 2,488$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.35 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 2,434$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.54 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,940$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Houston Astros | 63c | 1,498$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.13 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros | 62c | 999.95$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.98 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 62c | 811.61$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…63bdbacked Chicago Cubs | 6c | 790$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…370dbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 549.08$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Houston Astros | 63c | 524.78$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.17 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 515.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 458.2$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.12 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 408.31$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 399.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 302.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 72c | 290.95$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 63c | 283.95$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 62c | 259.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Houston Astros | 62c | 258.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Houston Astros | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 78.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Chicago Cubs | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 61.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Houston Astros | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 46.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Houston Astros | 69c | 46.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 44.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 43.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…f0adbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 37.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 33.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 32.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 78c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.