Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7691a54e2f034e1a2ee82f2910d6307aa749737e6230bd03a7e7be35548196ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 259$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 252$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 80c | 215.64$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 208.01$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 26c | 193.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 27c | 182.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 20c | 149.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 139.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 123.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 19c | 118.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 21c | 117.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 116.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 109.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 109.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 102.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 31c | 96.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 18c | 81.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 75.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 67.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 62.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 22c | 61.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 60.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 56.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 55.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 49.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 47.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 31c | 47.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 45.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 22c | 45.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 43.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 24c | 41.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…edf4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 76c | 39.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 33.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…45e2backed No | 80c | 31.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 80c | 27.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 21.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 80c | 18.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.