Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77117ae0cd227f6bd264db370c82d929afa0961b144798cd33a644823234d141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 506.01$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 327.94$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 236.81$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 226.34$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 213.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 186.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 174.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 137$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 119.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 117.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 35c | 116.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 53c | 112.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 69c | 112.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 106.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 105.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 37c | 101.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 85.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 60.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 59.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 69c | 57.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 46c | 52.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 50.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 45.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 32c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 45.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 44.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 66c | 44.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 73c | 42.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 42.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 36c | 40.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 42c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 29.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 29.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6d…08edbacked Yes | 78c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 73c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 65c | 22.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 63c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 68c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked Yes | 79c | 12.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.